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"correction_suggestion": "Increase shrinkage for high predicted scores with large model disagreement.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 64.670000000000002, "conflict": 3.9199999999999999, "risk_penalty": 13.1, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 47.969999999999999, "confidence_gap": 12.59 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "FALSE_POSITIVE | predicted 39.2 vs outcome 0" }, { "race_num": 7, "banker_horse": "1", "banker_name": "燭光晚餐", "supreme_rank": 3, "tier": "C", "action": "WATCH", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "C|WATCH|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "8", "1", "3", "9" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 2, "feedback_class": "TRUE_POSITIVE", "predicted_score": 38.008000000000003, "actual_outcome_score": 82, "calibration_error": 43.991999999999997, "absolute_error": 43.991999999999997, "recommended_adjustment": 1.429, "learning_confidence": 78.780000000000001, "error_category": "CORRECT_POSITIVE", "error_root_cause": "ACTIVE_SIGNAL_CONFIRMED", "error_severity": 0, "correction_suggestion": "Retain pattern; use as positive validation sample.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 66.579999999999998, "conflict": 3.3599999999999999, "risk_penalty": 13.1, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 39.369999999999997, "confidence_gap": 12.039999999999999 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "TRUE_POSITIVE | predicted 38 vs outcome 82" }, { "race_num": 9, "banker_horse": "3", "banker_name": "嘉應勇將", "supreme_rank": 4, "tier": "D", "action": "SKIP", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "11", "4", "3", "6" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 3, "feedback_class": "FALSE_NEGATIVE", "predicted_score": 37.686999999999998, "actual_outcome_score": 68, "calibration_error": 30.314, "absolute_error": 30.314, "recommended_adjustment": 2.1890000000000001, "learning_confidence": 78.790000000000006, "error_category": "UNDER_PREDICTION", "error_root_cause": "RELIABLE_SIGNAL_UNDERWEIGHTED", "error_severity": 56.270000000000003, "correction_suggestion": "Reduce negative shrinkage when reliability is strong and the horse is still skipped.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 66.590000000000003, "conflict": 3.3300000000000001, "risk_penalty": 13.1, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 38.460000000000001, "confidence_gap": 11.73 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "FALSE_NEGATIVE | predicted 37.7 vs outcome 68" }, { "race_num": 3, "banker_horse": "8", "banker_name": "天火同人", "supreme_rank": 5, "tier": "D", "action": "SKIP", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "11", "4", "8", "1" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 3, "feedback_class": "FALSE_NEGATIVE", "predicted_score": 36.270000000000003, "actual_outcome_score": 68, "calibration_error": 31.73, "absolute_error": 31.73, "recommended_adjustment": 2.2480000000000002, "learning_confidence": 77.540000000000006, "error_category": "UNDER_PREDICTION", "error_root_cause": "SKIP_THRESHOLD_TOO_STRICT", "error_severity": 62.280000000000001, "correction_suggestion": "Review SKIP threshold around borderline scores and promote selected cases to WATCH.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 64.739999999999995, "conflict": 3.8599999999999999, "risk_penalty": 13.1, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 48.420000000000002, "confidence_gap": 17.699999999999999 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "FALSE_NEGATIVE | predicted 36.3 vs outcome 68" }, { "race_num": 1, "banker_horse": "1", "banker_name": "鄉村樂韻", "supreme_rank": 6, "tier": "D", "action": "SKIP", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "3", "1", "5", "6" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 2, "feedback_class": "FALSE_NEGATIVE", "predicted_score": 33.780000000000001, "actual_outcome_score": 82, "calibration_error": 48.219999999999999, "absolute_error": 48.219999999999999, "recommended_adjustment": 3.4089999999999998, "learning_confidence": 76.730000000000004, "error_category": "UNDER_PREDICTION", "error_root_cause": "RISK_OVER_PENALTY", "error_severity": 76.099999999999994, "correction_suggestion": "Cap risk penalty when independent structure/value signals remain positive.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 62.619999999999997, "conflict": 3.3399999999999999, "risk_penalty": 16.100000000000001, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 35.200000000000003, "confidence_gap": 13.9 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "FALSE_NEGATIVE | predicted 33.8 vs outcome 82" }, { "race_num": 5, "banker_horse": "10", "banker_name": "祥勝力駒", "supreme_rank": 7, "tier": "D", "action": "SKIP", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "9", "2", "12", "1" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 0, "feedback_class": "TRUE_NEGATIVE", "predicted_score": 33.448, "actual_outcome_score": 0, "calibration_error": -33.448, "absolute_error": 33.448, "recommended_adjustment": -0.72099999999999997, "learning_confidence": 70.390000000000001, "error_category": "CORRECT_NEGATIVE", "error_root_cause": "SKIP_SIGNAL_CONFIRMED", "error_severity": 0, "correction_suggestion": "Retain defensive rule; use as negative validation sample.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 65.959999999999994, "conflict": 3.4700000000000002, "risk_penalty": 13.1, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 39.049999999999997, "confidence_gap": 16.620000000000001 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "TRUE_NEGATIVE | predicted 33.4 vs outcome 0" }, { "race_num": 4, "banker_horse": "3", "banker_name": "巴閉仔", "supreme_rank": 8, "tier": "D", "action": "SKIP", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "1", "7", "6", "5" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 0, "feedback_class": "TRUE_NEGATIVE", "predicted_score": 31.030000000000001, "actual_outcome_score": 0, "calibration_error": -31.030000000000001, "absolute_error": 31.030000000000001, "recommended_adjustment": -0.59099999999999997, "learning_confidence": 65.5, "error_category": "CORRECT_NEGATIVE", "error_root_cause": "SKIP_SIGNAL_CONFIRMED", "error_severity": 0, "correction_suggestion": "Retain defensive rule; use as negative validation sample.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 62.460000000000001, "conflict": 9.0500000000000007, "risk_penalty": 14.4, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 51.630000000000003, "confidence_gap": 19.649999999999999 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "TRUE_NEGATIVE | predicted 31 vs outcome 0" }, { "race_num": 8, "banker_horse": "7", "banker_name": "展雄志", "supreme_rank": 9, "tier": "D", "action": "SKIP", "risk_level": "LOW", "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "result_available": true, "finish_order": [ "9", "11", "10", "7" ], "result_source": "racing_results_all", "banker_finish_position": 4, "feedback_class": "TRUE_NEGATIVE", "predicted_score": 29.466999999999999, "actual_outcome_score": 48, "calibration_error": 18.533000000000001, "absolute_error": 18.533000000000001, "recommended_adjustment": -0.34599999999999997, "learning_confidence": 71.640000000000001, "error_category": "CORRECT_NEGATIVE", "error_root_cause": "SKIP_SIGNAL_CONFIRMED", "error_severity": 0, "correction_suggestion": "Retain defensive rule; use as negative validation sample.", "diagnostic_context": { "reliability": 58.859999999999999, "conflict": 9.0299999999999994, "risk_penalty": 17.100000000000001, "risk_level": "LOW", "consensus_pct": 51.560000000000002, "confidence_gap": 21.469999999999999 }, "apply_mode": "ADVISORY_ONLY", "applied_to_live_engine": false, "feedback_reason": "TRUE_NEGATIVE | predicted 29.5 vs outcome 48" } ], "patterns": [ { "pattern_key": "D|SKIP|LOW|CAUTION", "samples": 6, "evaluated": 6, "top3_hits": 3, "false_positive": 0, "false_negative": 3, "top3_rate": 50, "average_adjustment": 1.0309999999999999, "learning_confidence": 73.430000000000007, "posterior_hit_rate": 50, "sample_weight_pct": 50, "pattern_stability": 69, "pattern_confidence_score": 46.5, "pattern_recommendation": "DOWNGRADE", "recommendation_reason": "Samples 6 | Posterior 50% | Stability 69% | Error 50%", "status": "LEARNABLE" }, { "pattern_key": "C|WATCH|LOW|CAUTION", "samples": 3, "evaluated": 3, "top3_hits": 2, "false_positive": 1, "false_negative": 0, "top3_rate": 66.670000000000002, "average_adjustment": 0.186, "learning_confidence": 75.75, "posterior_hit_rate": 57.140000000000001, "sample_weight_pct": 25, "pattern_stability": 67.329999999999998, "pattern_confidence_score": 42.210000000000001, "pattern_recommendation": "HOLD", "recommendation_reason": "Samples 3 | Posterior 57.1% | Stability 67.3% | Error 33.3%", "status": "LEARNABLE" } ], "snapshot_written": false }